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Halicke: Wilson's potential could make him the steal of the draft
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

The Steelers had quite a haul in this year's NFL Draft, a class that's widely considered to be one of the best in the league. But perhaps the steal out of all 257 players selected in the 2024 draft is Steelers' third-round linebacker, Payton Wilson, who surprisingly fell all the way to 98th overall.

Heading into the draft, Wilson was considered to be one of the top off-ball linebackers in the class, perhaps even the best of a pretty underwhelming crop at the position. Because the position isn't valued near as much as several others, it was difficult to envision Wilson as a surefire first-round pick, but many expected Wilson to be a second-round selection.

Wilson was as productive as any linebacker in college, recording more than 80 tackles and 10 tackles for loss (TFL) in both 2020 and 2022, but those pale in comparison to a dominant 2023 season in which Wilson recorded 138 tackles, 17.5 TFLs, six sacks, three interceptions, two fumble recoveries and one forced fumble. Wilson earned just about every accolade in the book for his performance, earning first team AP All-American honors, was named ACC Defensive Player of the Year and won both the Butkus Award (the nation's top linebacker) and Bednarik Award (the nation's top defensive player).

Before we get into the reasons to be excited about Wilson, it's important to digest why this highly-touted linebacker fell so far -- almost out of the top 100 -- in this draft.

A four-star recruit out of of Orange High School in Hillsborough, N.C., Wilson was a multi-sport standout, excelling in football, lacrosse and wrestling, winning a state championship in the latter. And, Wilson has another professional athlete in his family, former Pirates pitcher Bryse Wilson. So, not only was Wilson an accomplished star in multiple sports, he had first-hand knowledge of the high demands a professional athlete must endure.

But before committing to North Carolina State in 2017, Wilson tore his ACL during his senior season in high school. Then, Wilson tore his ACL again after he arrived on campus during the summer and subsequently redshirted as a freshman because of it, missing all of the 2018 season. Then, after playing in 21 games over the 2019-2020 seasons, finding his first taste of success in the latter, Wilson missed all but two games in 2021 due to a shoulder injury.

To make matters worse, it was reported by NFL Network after Wilson had been drafted by the Steelers that he is missing an ACL in one of his knees, which added concern and contextualized why Wilson fell as far as he did in the draft.

A lengthy injury history and other concerns about a player's long-term health can do serious damage to a player's draft stock. We've seen this with the Steelers even as recently last season when they selected Cory Trice Jr. in the seventh round of the draft. Trice was projected as a third- or fourth-rounder, but dropped significantly and fell into the Steelers' lap in the final round. Those health concerns were realized as Trice didn't even make it to the team's first preseason game before suffering a torn ACL, the second of his football career, forcing him to miss his entire rookie season.

Now, while it's understandable why Wilson fell in the draft, it's unfair to automatically assume Wilson can't be successful in the NFL because of a lengthy injury history and if the report of him missing an ACL is accurate. After all, Hines Ward and Greg Lloyd were each missing an ACL and both had successful careers with the Steelers. And, Wilson is coming off two straight healthy seasons, including one that we've already highlighted as one of the best by any defensive player in the country.

This is where we can now get into why Wilson might be the steal of the entire draft. Simply put, if Wilson doesn't deal with any health issues, he's a borderline first-round talent. First, just look at how he measures up against the last great linebacker the Steelers had, Ryan Shazier:

Yes, it's a bit unfair to put these kind of expectations on Wilson. Shazier was a first-round pick that evolved into a guy worthy of consideration for Defensive Player of the Year by the time he suffered his career-ending injury. But, when you see Wilson do something like this on a football field ...

... you don't only forget about any missing ACL, but also can't help but salivate over the type of player Wilson can be. It's not every day a linebacker can hit 23.7 miles per hour.

Wilson's game begins with pure, raw speed. As you can see above, Wilson ran a 4.43 in the 40-yard dash. He has straight line speed to chase down just about any player on the football field. But, he combines that with a relentless motor:

Here, Wilson is lined up on the right side of the defense, just outside the tackle. After engaging with the tackle, he manages to read the quarterback and chase him down when he decides to take off after running from the other side of the field. There are few players in the NFL capable of doing something like this.

While it's not the only strong part of Wilson's game, getting enamored over his speed is justified. It's something that can't be coached. Having this type of elite speed makes pursuit an automatic strength. And, it also makes him a heat-seeking missile as a pass rusher:

Wilson not only has top-of-the-line speed, but elite athleticism that helps him change direction fluidly and get around would-be blockers when in pursuit of any kind. Adding this alongside Patrick Queen, the Steelers have two linebackers that are able to get after the quarterback from the second level.

But, it's important to note that Wilson's not just some athletic freak with no direction or football IQ. First off, he doesn't miss tackles. According to Pro Football Focus, Wilson missed only 4.7% of his tackle opportunities during his 2023 season. For context, Queen missed 14.6% of his tackle opportunities with the Ravens last season. 

Second, Wilson's eyes are always up reading the play, whether it be in run defense or in coverage. He's very good at dissecting plays, which is a must as an off-ball linebacker.

On this play, I love how Wilson becomes immediately engaged with the left guard, but his gaze never goes there. His eyes are fixated on the ball carrier, and he reacts so quickly that getting off the block is no issue. 

Here, Wilson (No. 11) breaks down the play very quickly. He looks at the receivers and tight end getting off the line to see where they're running, then immediately turns his head back to the quarterback to read his eyes. Once he sees the quarterback commit to the tight end that sits underneath, Wilson jumps on it and winds up with a pass breakup. 

Wilson could stand to clean up some things in pass coverage, but he's still very accomplished in that regard at the college level. According to PFF, Wilson had only a 47.2 NFL passer rating against when he was targeted in coverage. To be completely honest, whether it's in run defense or pass coverage, it's hard to pull up any numbers on Wilson and find any glaring weaknesses. He racks up tackles, doesn't miss them, gets after the quarterback (22 pressures last season, according to PFF), doesn't get beaten in coverage and helps take the ball away.

If there's any weakness to Wilson's game, outside of injuries, he can be a bit over-aggressive at times. But, Mike Tomlin would rather say, "Whoa" than "Sic 'em," so I don't think the Steelers are too concerned about that. For those who have watched the Steelers for the past two seasons, Wilson plays with the same downhill intensity as Mark Robinson, but with a much higher football IQ. He's closer to Queen in that regard.

In addition, Wilson could probably afford to put on some muscle. He's a bit lean at just under 6-4 and 233 pounds. Shazier weighed only four pounds more than that coming out of college, but was about three inches shorter. Even if it sacrifices a little bit of speed, adding some muscle could help Wilson maintain health and also stand a better chance of winning reps when playing closer to the line of scrimmage.

At the end of the day, Wilson's truly defined as a football player. He has a knack for being around the football, which is why he recorded seven interceptions, 20 passes defensed and 15 sacks in 46 games at N.C. State. As far as second-level players go, Wilson was the biggest playmaker in this draft class. And we all know how much Tomlin loves his splash plays.

With the potential that is there, Wilson has every opportunity to be a true steal at 98th overall. If it weren't for the medical concerns, there would be no way he'd fall that far, even with positions such as quarterback, receiver, cornerback and tackle being as deep as they were in this class.

With a robust work ethic and exceptional resilience to overcome three serious injuries, Wilson embodies a lot of the non-football traits that the Steelers value. Then, his athleticism, coverage skills and sideline-to-sideline speed fit seamlessly into the NFL's demand for versatile linebackers. 

Of all the Steelers' selections in the 2024 draft, I truly believe Wilson has the potential to possibly become the most impactful player from this class. The sky's the limit.

This article first appeared on DK Pittsburgh Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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