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Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett. Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

AFC division longshots: Backing Steelers' Pickett is wicked ... smart

By Jack Dougherty | Last updated 8/30/23

The AFC is loaded with Super Bowl contenders this year, so much so that it's hard to pick a favorite out of the bunch. With so many talented rosters around the conference, though, there's a ton of value to be found in the division betting markets.

Let's try to find some with two longshot division futures to target for the 2023 NFL season.

AFC East: Miami Dolphins (+300 DraftKings)

It's clear this Miami Dolphins team has one of the highest ceilings in the NFL heading into the 2023 season.

Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle make up possibly the most dynamic wide receiver duo in the history of the league, Tua Tagovailoa was an MVP candidate last year before injuries got in the way, and the defense has elite upside under new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio.

The Dolphins added cornerback Jalen Ramsey, linebacker David Long, safety DeShon Elliott, and linebacker Malik Reed this offseason to improve a defense that already features Xavien Howard, Jevon Holland, Bradley Chubb, Christian Wilkins, and Jaelan Phillips. That's a whole lot of top-end talent to challenge Josh Allen and Aaron Rodgers in the AFC East.

As for Tagovailoa, he led the NFL in yards per attempt (8.9) and ranked second in passer rating (105.5) last season despite dealing with more than one concussion. The threat of another injury is evident, but the addition of Mike White will help the Dolphins compete if Tagovailoa ends up missing time this year.

The pieces are all in place for a special season in Miami.

AFC North: Pittsburgh Steelers (+500 DK)

You could easily argue that the AFC North is the most loaded division in the NFL this season. The Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens have Super Bowl aspirations behind elite quarterbacks, and the Cleveland Browns could make a huge jump this year if Deshaun Watson can return to his old form.

Then there are the Pittsburgh Steelers, who have become somewhat of an afterthought in this crowded division. The Steelers have the longest odds to win the AFC North at +500, but I think they're worth at least a sprinkle.

Kenny Pickett is in line for a massive second-year jump under offensive coordinator Matt Canada. In limited preseason action, Pickett completed 13 of his 15 pass attempts for 199 yards and two touchdowns. The Pittsburgh product should be able to push the ball down the field to Dionte Johnson, Allen Robinson, and an emerging George Pickens, plus Najee Harris and Pat Freiermuth make up a deadly duo of red zone weapons. This should also be an improved offensive line thanks to the addition of Isaac Seumalo.

But the straw that stirs the drink for this Steelers team is undoubtedly T.J. Watt. Pittsburgh went 8-2 with Watt on the field last season and 1-6 without him. The Steelers allowed just 16.9 points per game with Watt active, which would've been the lowest mark in the NFL last year.

A full, healthy season from Watt and a Pickett breakout might be all this team needs to make a run at the AFC North.

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